Every year, around about November, I get a bit over confident and start noting down what I think is going to happen in the year ahead. In January I commit myself in a blog post to saying what I predict will go on. And then at the end of every year I have to look back and see whether I was right or not. Sometimes I do well, sometimes my crystal ball’s clearly not working.
Over the years I’ve been doing this people have asked how I work out what’s on the horizon. Since I’m not psychic I base the predictions on things I can see emerging, for example ongoing research debates, patterns of media coverage, forthcoming political agenda items and so on. So most of it is informed by things that are already starting or being talked about, which may or may not develop in the next 12 months. For this reason the predictions tend to be focused around core areas where I have an interest, so if you feel I’m missing something don’t panic – why not create your own list of predictions instead?
I’ll be sharing my hunches for 2011 in early January, but before then let’s look at this year? What did I predict? You can read the full post here.
Our approach to managing STIs (in the UK at least) will change focus
Over the past year or so we’ve seen a shift towards treatment and testing rather than prevention based (safer sex/use a condom) based messaging. This year that trend did continue with PCTs, health protection organisations and the Department of Health focusing on getting tested and treatment – particularly for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea. Indeed early in 2010 we saw numerous TV and radio campaigns reminding people sex (and STI testing) was ‘worth talking about’.
This approach resulted in a hike in STI detection which the media didn’t attribute to a shift in making treatment and testing more accessible, but did blame on promiscuity and feckless youth. It seems the focus on treatment/testing is set to continue, but sexual and reproductive health practitioners remain divided on whether this is appropriate without the equivalent focus on prevention messaging. So on that score the prediction we’d change focus on managing STIs was right, although rather than a dramatic shift in tackling the issue we’ve seen more of an extension of previous years approaches in 2010.
Interestingly something that did springboard contraception (in the form of condoms) into the headlines was an NHS video campaign aimed at young men. The Condom/No Condom? Campaign allows viewers to decide whether or not to use condoms, and shows what happens based on their choices. You can see the clips and work through the condom/no condom options here. As it was aimed at heterosexual young men it was designed to be somewhat fruity. Most sex educators and young people who saw it responded positively. But nobody was really looking at it until a faith based group tipped off the Daily Mail who predictably combusted and described it as pornographic. This resulted in rocketing levels of views of the condom/no condom films. Unfortunately probably not always by those the films were aimed at, but still it was more than funny that the moral outrage of the Mail probably boosted this safer sex venture more than anything else.
Divorce and separation rates will continue to rise
Relationship therapists have noted increased consultations from couples this year (both married and cohabiting) although it is not yet clear whether this is translating into separation and divorce. With the coalition in power, the Conservatives in particular seem focused on divorce as an issue and are currently looking at interventions to keep couples together. Predictably suggestions made so far have not focused on more holistic views of relationships (or relationship stressors) or the body of research on relationships or marriage that exists. It will be down to researchers working in these areas to alert politicians to what works in supporting healthy relationships (and separations) over the coming months. Not least because people clearly are struggling to manage intimate relationships and support in this area is necessary. This wasn’t strictly a prediction as it was already being talked up in 2009, but it does seem to be an area that has been a worry in 2010.
What I didn’t predict but was related to this topic was the volume of media coverage given to infidelity, particularly the intimate lives of sportsmen who seemed to provide endless tabloid fodder and speculation around their dalliances with prostitutes, good time girls and other women the media could endlessly judge.
Contraception will be big news
I said last year “Alongside a shift to focus on testing/treatment for STIs, we’ll see an additional change in the promotion of contraception”. This was true to an extent with a wider uptake of LARC (long acting reversible contraception), partly related to NICE guidance and a move in reproductive healthcare to promote LARC more widely. However, the biggest surprise that I didn’t foresee at all was contraception (specifically the pill) became massive news because the media didn’t understand core issues about interpreting public health data and prescribing hormonal contraception for reasons other than birth control. Which led to faith based groups persuading them that there was an epidemic of promiscuous 11 year olds on the pill.
Premature Ejaculation will be publicised as key problem for men
For most of the year I thought this wasn’t going to be the case, but two things happened from the summer onwards to change things. The first was that Trading Standards closed down the deplorable Advanced Medical Institute. I can’t tell you how many distressing emails I’ve had by men exploited by this company, distressed and in some cases given life threatening ‘medical’ advice. This is still an area where journalists should be investigating.
The second development came from Boots the pharmacy who’ve launched a new range of sexual enhancement products aimed at men, which include items to manage premature ejaculation (and also erectile dysfunction). Unfortunately they’ve decided to promote this range with the media message that men find it difficult to talk to a doctor which may be unhelpful. While the pharmacy can be a useful point of advice for men on psychosexual issues it may not suit all men with underlying psychological or physical conditions. In those cases BASRT or your GP is a better place to go. Those interested in the products promoted by Boots and other high street pharmacies may wish to particularly focus on claims made for the products, what research the products are based on, and effectiveness – particularly for the herbal cures for psychosexual problems. The quality of psychosexual advice offered may also be subject to evaluation for those interested in this area of public health care.
However, PE failed to be the major issue I thought it might become. So that prediction was perhaps a little misplaced.
We’ll focus more on ‘problem’ sex rather than sex positive messages
Sex positivity really wasn’t that obvious in 2010. Instead we heard endless accounts of celebrity relationship disasters (particularly the aforementioned sportsmen). We also were preoccupied with sexualisation of young people (although nobody really knew exactly what that meant). And within sex advice the focus still was around why women lacked desire, or how they could get it back. Or more worryingly judgemental and outdated views around alternative sexualities, that managed to blend both unethical judgement of case studies with incorrect information shared about BDSM.
So that prediction did come true, although I wish it hadn’t. On a positive note for many of these problem areas practitioners have become better connected via twitter and online communities and have taken direct steps to challenge poor practice or share more positive, less judgemental and more accurate information.
It’s time to think of new ways to prevent HIV
There was a shift in 2010 around talking about the ‘prevention revolution’ as UNAIDS described it. This focused less on finding new means of preventing HIV and more around thinking about ways to get people to use condoms. (Matt Greenall wrote a great post about some of the issues this raises). While there’s been a lot of conversation around prevention this year, we still need to see action, and also more innovative and inclusive approaches to tackling this area – both in research and practice. We are still seeing much public health activity in this area coming from limited, uncritical and often very top down models. Research keeps being replicated, existing evidence not used, critically appraised or applied to practice. NGOs are not always responsive to evidence in this area, and may in fact implement programmes that run counter to good practice. The usual barriers of time, training, cost and awareness also continue to hamper general education and healthcare in this area. Because this has not changed I’d say we haven’t really thought much around new ways of addressing HIV and I can’t claim this as a prediction I got right. This is a shame. We can do better.
We’ll see social networks constructed as peril-for-relationships
This definitely did happen – with the suggestion Facebook is linked to rises in syphilis, and celebrities making up and breaking up over twitter. Through social media we got to see our own romantic lives and those of others blossom or implode. Research in this area still needs to catch up to focus on both the problems and opportunities social networks offer.
Sex blogging may well change and become more cautious and (self)censored
I noted that last year (2009) was “ending with a firestorm among sex bloggers embroiled in bitter arguments and outings”. I was obliquely referring to the Alexa Di Carlo case, which was at the time causing a lot of tension among those suggesting ‘Alexa’ was not all ‘she’ seemed who were being dismissed as unfair or hysterical by others who didn’t see a problem. It sadly turned out those raising concerns were not wrong. ‘Alexa’, also known as ‘Caitlin’ was a man. Called Thomas Bohannan. A person who spent years claiming to be both a sex worker, an academic, and a sex educator – depending on which persona they were using. A person who encouraged people to consider sex work in ways other sex workers felt were coercive or exploitative. And who under the guise of an online sex educator invited young women to share intimate stories and photographs of their breasts and genitals.
The response to this still left some folk debating whether the outing of Alexa/Caitlin was ‘fair’ or arguing discourses on sex work were okay and didn’t have to be ‘real’. Or that it was precious for some to suggest sex educators held a particular position of responsibility and qualification. Or that claiming academic qualifications in sexology when you didn’t have them was no big deal. All of which are summed up by Miss Maggie Mayhem in Alexa Bingo
Several excellent bloggers tackled this awful story, and particularly noteworthy are Charlie Glickman, Monica Shores, Miss Maggie Mayhem and The Sexademic.
For many outside the sex education/sex work blogger community this case may not seem all that important, but it has caused deep distress and in some cases direct harm to those who have shared intimate information with ‘Alexa’/’Caitlin’. The response from many who saw this as more of a philosophical debate than an abusive situation has led to a lot of ill feeling, mistrust and hurt. I would have dearly loved this prediction not to have come true, but it did and we now have to find ways to move forward, document what has happened and learn from the experience. And to support each other from the daily battles many of us face online and in person from those who seek to discredit or generally disrupt the work of sex educators, activists, sex workers and other sex positive folk.
The media will be thrilled about long term love
This didn’t really come to much in the year, as the focus was far more on relationship crises and infidelity. So I can’t really claim this as something that really caught our attention within the mainstream media or popular culture.
Family planning and environmental activism will combine
I saw this as being something that would have more of a focus as during 2009 many public health (particularly reproductive health) organisations appeared to be focusing on family size as linked to food/housing resources, climate change and so on. And I thought there would be more of a debate (and even backlash) against some of the assumptions that seemed to be underpinning these campaigns. However this didn’t really happen on a wide scale, although @naomimc did pick up on some of the related issues about the role of women in these debates – which are still worth having.
And sex education? Well, I predict that I just don’t know what will happen
It’s probably cheating to predict you can’t tell what’s going to happen, but in this case I really had no clue at the start of the year, and during the year things have shifted considerably. Firstly Labour backtracked on making sex ed compulsory after the Conservatives put pressure on them during voting on the Children and Families Bill. Then NICE opened up a public consultation on sex education curriculum. This coincided with the election which labour lost, meaning we were looking at going back to the drawing board with sex ed.
Labour MP Chris Bryant brought the topic back to the political agenda in September and it is tabled to be debated in early 2011. In October the Sex Education Forum/NCB produced guidance for young people to enable them to campaign for better quality sex education. On several occasions the media returned to the idea that sex education was ‘difficult’ or ‘embarrassing’ for teachers (see here and here), but didn’t account for the wider barriers to providing quality sex and relationships information – at home or in school.
We have also heard in the government White Paper on Education (available here) their view on sex education is:
Children need high-quality sex and relationships education so they can make wise and informed choices. We will work with teachers, parents, faith groups and campaign groups, such as Stonewall to make sure sex and relationships education encompasses an understanding of the ways in which humans love each other and stresses the importance of respecting individual autonomy.
Children can benefit enormously from high-quality Personal Social Health and Economic (PSHE) education. Good PSHE supports individual young people to make safe and informed choices. It can help tackle public health issues such as substance misuse and support young people with the financial decisions the must make. We will conduct an internal review to determine how we can support schools to improve the quality of all PSHE teaching, including giving teachers the flexibility to use their judgement about how best to deliver PSHE education.
However, it remains unclear what is going to happen. Certainly it seems unlikely sex education will be compulsory (not that this was automatically a solution to tackling sex ed anyway). The statements made in the White Paper suggest we may well see sex ed continuing as is, delivered excellently in some areas and not in others.
Alongside this debate we also saw the predictable meme of ‘parents being excluded’ being rehearsed consistently in the media (although there seems no real evidence of this and it’s not like parents are being prevented to talk about sex/relationships should they wish). We also saw a lot of media fuss over the age of consent and anxieties over sexualisation which tapped into the sex ed debate. When it comes to sex education watch this space. Advocates of sex ed will continue to campaign for quality sex ed in the classroom and the home, while opponents will continue to oppose sex ed in schools – often with extreme and unhelpful messaging. It’s going to be more of the same in 2011.
I hope you had a good time in 2010 and wishing you a very Happy New Year! In particular I appreciate your support reading this blog, giving me feedback on how to improve it (via email, twitter or in person). Join me early in 2011 and I’ll have another punt at what I think is going to be big news in sex/relationships.
Revisiting my sex and relationships predictions for 2010
Every year, around about November, I get a bit over confident and start noting down what I think is going to happen in the year ahead. In January I commit myself in a blog post to saying what I predict will go on. And then at the end of every year I have to look back and see whether I was right or not. Sometimes I do well, sometimes my crystal ball’s clearly not working.
Over the years I’ve been doing this people have asked how I work out what’s on the horizon. Since I’m not psychic I base the predictions on things I can see emerging, for example ongoing research debates, patterns of media coverage, forthcoming political agenda items and so on. So most of it is informed by things that are already starting or being talked about, which may or may not develop in the next 12 months. For this reason the predictions tend to be focused around core areas where I have an interest, so if you feel I’m missing something don’t panic – why not create your own list of predictions instead?
I’ll be sharing my hunches for 2011 in early January, but before then let’s look at this year? What did I predict? You can read the full post here.
Our approach to managing STIs (in the UK at least) will change focus
Over the past year or so we’ve seen a shift towards treatment and testing rather than prevention based (safer sex/use a condom) based messaging. This year that trend did continue with PCTs, health protection organisations and the Department of Health focusing on getting tested and treatment – particularly for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea. Indeed early in 2010 we saw numerous TV and radio campaigns reminding people sex (and STI testing) was ‘worth talking about’.
This approach resulted in a hike in STI detection which the media didn’t attribute to a shift in making treatment and testing more accessible, but did blame on promiscuity and feckless youth. It seems the focus on treatment/testing is set to continue, but sexual and reproductive health practitioners remain divided on whether this is appropriate without the equivalent focus on prevention messaging. So on that score the prediction we’d change focus on managing STIs was right, although rather than a dramatic shift in tackling the issue we’ve seen more of an extension of previous years approaches in 2010.
Interestingly something that did springboard contraception (in the form of condoms) into the headlines was an NHS video campaign aimed at young men. The Condom/No Condom? Campaign allows viewers to decide whether or not to use condoms, and shows what happens based on their choices. You can see the clips and work through the condom/no condom options here. As it was aimed at heterosexual young men it was designed to be somewhat fruity. Most sex educators and young people who saw it responded positively. But nobody was really looking at it until a faith based group tipped off the Daily Mail who predictably combusted and described it as pornographic. This resulted in rocketing levels of views of the condom/no condom films. Unfortunately probably not always by those the films were aimed at, but still it was more than funny that the moral outrage of the Mail probably boosted this safer sex venture more than anything else.
Divorce and separation rates will continue to rise
Relationship therapists have noted increased consultations from couples this year (both married and cohabiting) although it is not yet clear whether this is translating into separation and divorce. With the coalition in power, the Conservatives in particular seem focused on divorce as an issue and are currently looking at interventions to keep couples together. Predictably suggestions made so far have not focused on more holistic views of relationships (or relationship stressors) or the body of research on relationships or marriage that exists. It will be down to researchers working in these areas to alert politicians to what works in supporting healthy relationships (and separations) over the coming months. Not least because people clearly are struggling to manage intimate relationships and support in this area is necessary. This wasn’t strictly a prediction as it was already being talked up in 2009, but it does seem to be an area that has been a worry in 2010.
What I didn’t predict but was related to this topic was the volume of media coverage given to infidelity, particularly the intimate lives of sportsmen who seemed to provide endless tabloid fodder and speculation around their dalliances with prostitutes, good time girls and other women the media could endlessly judge.
Contraception will be big news
I said last year “Alongside a shift to focus on testing/treatment for STIs, we’ll see an additional change in the promotion of contraception”. This was true to an extent with a wider uptake of LARC (long acting reversible contraception), partly related to NICE guidance and a move in reproductive healthcare to promote LARC more widely. However, the biggest surprise that I didn’t foresee at all was contraception (specifically the pill) became massive news because the media didn’t understand core issues about interpreting public health data and prescribing hormonal contraception for reasons other than birth control. Which led to faith based groups persuading them that there was an epidemic of promiscuous 11 year olds on the pill.
Premature Ejaculation will be publicised as key problem for men
For most of the year I thought this wasn’t going to be the case, but two things happened from the summer onwards to change things. The first was that Trading Standards closed down the deplorable Advanced Medical Institute. I can’t tell you how many distressing emails I’ve had by men exploited by this company, distressed and in some cases given life threatening ‘medical’ advice. This is still an area where journalists should be investigating.
The second development came from Boots the pharmacy who’ve launched a new range of sexual enhancement products aimed at men, which include items to manage premature ejaculation (and also erectile dysfunction). Unfortunately they’ve decided to promote this range with the media message that men find it difficult to talk to a doctor which may be unhelpful. While the pharmacy can be a useful point of advice for men on psychosexual issues it may not suit all men with underlying psychological or physical conditions. In those cases BASRT or your GP is a better place to go. Those interested in the products promoted by Boots and other high street pharmacies may wish to particularly focus on claims made for the products, what research the products are based on, and effectiveness – particularly for the herbal cures for psychosexual problems. The quality of psychosexual advice offered may also be subject to evaluation for those interested in this area of public health care.
However, PE failed to be the major issue I thought it might become. So that prediction was perhaps a little misplaced.
We’ll focus more on ‘problem’ sex rather than sex positive messages
Sex positivity really wasn’t that obvious in 2010. Instead we heard endless accounts of celebrity relationship disasters (particularly the aforementioned sportsmen). We also were preoccupied with sexualisation of young people (although nobody really knew exactly what that meant). And within sex advice the focus still was around why women lacked desire, or how they could get it back. Or more worryingly judgemental and outdated views around alternative sexualities, that managed to blend both unethical judgement of case studies with incorrect information shared about BDSM.
So that prediction did come true, although I wish it hadn’t. On a positive note for many of these problem areas practitioners have become better connected via twitter and online communities and have taken direct steps to challenge poor practice or share more positive, less judgemental and more accurate information.
It’s time to think of new ways to prevent HIV
There was a shift in 2010 around talking about the ‘prevention revolution’ as UNAIDS described it. This focused less on finding new means of preventing HIV and more around thinking about ways to get people to use condoms. (Matt Greenall wrote a great post about some of the issues this raises). While there’s been a lot of conversation around prevention this year, we still need to see action, and also more innovative and inclusive approaches to tackling this area – both in research and practice. We are still seeing much public health activity in this area coming from limited, uncritical and often very top down models. Research keeps being replicated, existing evidence not used, critically appraised or applied to practice. NGOs are not always responsive to evidence in this area, and may in fact implement programmes that run counter to good practice. The usual barriers of time, training, cost and awareness also continue to hamper general education and healthcare in this area. Because this has not changed I’d say we haven’t really thought much around new ways of addressing HIV and I can’t claim this as a prediction I got right. This is a shame. We can do better.
We’ll see social networks constructed as peril-for-relationships
This definitely did happen – with the suggestion Facebook is linked to rises in syphilis, and celebrities making up and breaking up over twitter. Through social media we got to see our own romantic lives and those of others blossom or implode. Research in this area still needs to catch up to focus on both the problems and opportunities social networks offer.
Sex blogging may well change and become more cautious and (self)censored
I noted that last year (2009) was “ending with a firestorm among sex bloggers embroiled in bitter arguments and outings”. I was obliquely referring to the Alexa Di Carlo case, which was at the time causing a lot of tension among those suggesting ‘Alexa’ was not all ‘she’ seemed who were being dismissed as unfair or hysterical by others who didn’t see a problem. It sadly turned out those raising concerns were not wrong. ‘Alexa’, also known as ‘Caitlin’ was a man. Called Thomas Bohannan. A person who spent years claiming to be both a sex worker, an academic, and a sex educator – depending on which persona they were using. A person who encouraged people to consider sex work in ways other sex workers felt were coercive or exploitative. And who under the guise of an online sex educator invited young women to share intimate stories and photographs of their breasts and genitals.
The response to this still left some folk debating whether the outing of Alexa/Caitlin was ‘fair’ or arguing discourses on sex work were okay and didn’t have to be ‘real’. Or that it was precious for some to suggest sex educators held a particular position of responsibility and qualification. Or that claiming academic qualifications in sexology when you didn’t have them was no big deal. All of which are summed up by Miss Maggie Mayhem in Alexa Bingo
Several excellent bloggers tackled this awful story, and particularly noteworthy are Charlie Glickman, Monica Shores, Miss Maggie Mayhem and The Sexademic.
For many outside the sex education/sex work blogger community this case may not seem all that important, but it has caused deep distress and in some cases direct harm to those who have shared intimate information with ‘Alexa’/’Caitlin’. The response from many who saw this as more of a philosophical debate than an abusive situation has led to a lot of ill feeling, mistrust and hurt. I would have dearly loved this prediction not to have come true, but it did and we now have to find ways to move forward, document what has happened and learn from the experience. And to support each other from the daily battles many of us face online and in person from those who seek to discredit or generally disrupt the work of sex educators, activists, sex workers and other sex positive folk.
The media will be thrilled about long term love
This didn’t really come to much in the year, as the focus was far more on relationship crises and infidelity. So I can’t really claim this as something that really caught our attention within the mainstream media or popular culture.
Family planning and environmental activism will combine
I saw this as being something that would have more of a focus as during 2009 many public health (particularly reproductive health) organisations appeared to be focusing on family size as linked to food/housing resources, climate change and so on. And I thought there would be more of a debate (and even backlash) against some of the assumptions that seemed to be underpinning these campaigns. However this didn’t really happen on a wide scale, although @naomimc did pick up on some of the related issues about the role of women in these debates – which are still worth having.
And sex education? Well, I predict that I just don’t know what will happen
It’s probably cheating to predict you can’t tell what’s going to happen, but in this case I really had no clue at the start of the year, and during the year things have shifted considerably. Firstly Labour backtracked on making sex ed compulsory after the Conservatives put pressure on them during voting on the Children and Families Bill. Then NICE opened up a public consultation on sex education curriculum. This coincided with the election which labour lost, meaning we were looking at going back to the drawing board with sex ed.
Labour MP Chris Bryant brought the topic back to the political agenda in September and it is tabled to be debated in early 2011. In October the Sex Education Forum/NCB produced guidance for young people to enable them to campaign for better quality sex education. On several occasions the media returned to the idea that sex education was ‘difficult’ or ‘embarrassing’ for teachers (see here and here), but didn’t account for the wider barriers to providing quality sex and relationships information – at home or in school.
We have also heard in the government White Paper on Education (available here) their view on sex education is:
Children need high-quality sex and relationships education so they can make wise and informed choices. We will work with teachers, parents, faith groups and campaign groups, such as Stonewall to make sure sex and relationships education encompasses an understanding of the ways in which humans love each other and stresses the importance of respecting individual autonomy.
Children can benefit enormously from high-quality Personal Social Health and Economic (PSHE) education. Good PSHE supports individual young people to make safe and informed choices. It can help tackle public health issues such as substance misuse and support young people with the financial decisions the must make. We will conduct an internal review to determine how we can support schools to improve the quality of all PSHE teaching, including giving teachers the flexibility to use their judgement about how best to deliver PSHE education.
However, it remains unclear what is going to happen. Certainly it seems unlikely sex education will be compulsory (not that this was automatically a solution to tackling sex ed anyway). The statements made in the White Paper suggest we may well see sex ed continuing as is, delivered excellently in some areas and not in others.
Alongside this debate we also saw the predictable meme of ‘parents being excluded’ being rehearsed consistently in the media (although there seems no real evidence of this and it’s not like parents are being prevented to talk about sex/relationships should they wish). We also saw a lot of media fuss over the age of consent and anxieties over sexualisation which tapped into the sex ed debate. When it comes to sex education watch this space. Advocates of sex ed will continue to campaign for quality sex ed in the classroom and the home, while opponents will continue to oppose sex ed in schools – often with extreme and unhelpful messaging. It’s going to be more of the same in 2011.
I hope you had a good time in 2010 and wishing you a very Happy New Year! In particular I appreciate your support reading this blog, giving me feedback on how to improve it (via email, twitter or in person). Join me early in 2011 and I’ll have another punt at what I think is going to be big news in sex/relationships.
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